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Thoughts From A Dinosaur

While I'm not that old, I have been a fan/player for 20+ years, and my view on lax is more "old school".

Game of Week preview 4/5

04/04/2008 By Keith

The fans split.  Duke/Hopkins and UNC/UVA.
I have no clue how the fans think Hopkins will give any problems to Duke. 
Please see post on Hopkins' demise here: http://laxspot.com/blogs/thoughts_from_a_dinosaur/index.php?pst_id=100209

Here is the UVA at UNC preview:

UNC is looking to keep their momentum rolling as they take on UVA this weekend, after a big win over a wounded Hopkins team.

UVA wants to get back to winning after they took their first loss last week when MD thwarted the potent UVA offense.

 

Virginia:

This week, in looking at some stats, UVA is looking a lot like Hopkins.  Granted UVA’s offense is much better, however some important holes are there to be exploited.

No one really pays attention to these, because everyone is watching their offense run and gun.

UVA coughs up the ball like my cat does hairballs.  The Cavs have lost the ball 165 times on the season (16.5/game).  The scary part is that opponents have only caused 46 of them, meaning that 119 turnovers are unforced (11.9/game).  They have more unforced sloppy/jittery turnovers than Hopkins. 

UVA’s Ghitelman is also a sieve in net.  No, he’s not a sieve, he’s a black hole…I won’t go on with the last part of the jeer, but you get my drift.  Granted he is a freshman, and will eventually be a tough goalie, fact is right now, he ranks 47 out of 50 NCAA D1 goaltenders in save%.  He has let in 87 goals and stopped 86 shots.  That is less than 50%.  We all know in lacrosse the term “Defense wins Championships” is not always true (Syracuse anyone), however, you need at least an average defense/goalie.  Against ranked teams the unit as a whole is letting in 11 goals per game. 

The Cavs’ saving grace is their offense.  An exciting group to watch.  Danny Glading leads in points with 41 (16G,25A), followed by Garrett Billings with 40 (22,18), and Brian Carroll with 25 (20,5).  This offense is averaging 14.9 goals per game.  Granted they blew the doors open on a hapless VMI 24-5, and Mount St. Mary’s 20-2.  Most teams can’t stop their attack, but then again most teams they have faced have not had a good defense and goalie, except for Maryland…Virginia’s only loss (and only game they couldn’t score more than 7 goals).

 

UNC:

My opinion of UNC doesn’t really change this week.  If you want a refresher take a look here: http://laxspot.com/blogs/thoughts_from_a_dinosaur/index.php?pst_id=100205

In fact I think they are even better. 

The first thing when discussing UNC is their goalie.  Zimmerman…he’s a brick…hoooouse.  He maintains his 61% save percentage for the year after the victory over Hopkins.

Zimmerman’s supporting cast on defense looked solid against a number of threats on Hopkins.  They looked better than expected, and IF they can maintain this level of play, will be able to shut down UVA.  I still worry that UNC can hold down a team with threats at both attack and midfield.

UNC’s offense is getting the job done.  They are not crushing anyone, but controlling and getting the win.  I also like the fact that, while Hunt and Wagner are the two studs on offense, there are any number of players that can step up and get a goal when needed.  A truly whole team offense.

 

If you want an apples to apples comparison, just look at the last two games for both teams.  Virginia played Hopkins then Maryland, while conversely, UNC played Maryland then Hopkins.  Overall goal differential for UNC was flat (0), while for UVA it was negative (-5). 

Virginia’s offense had difficulties against MD, and UNC’s defense/goalie is of the same caliber.  Couple that with Virginia’s defensive void, and the outcome is simple.

 

Prediction:  Wahoos cry BooHoo on their trip home after a 12-9 loss to UNC

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Ring the Alarm

03/31/2008 By Keith

Well if Hopkins fans were contemplating pushing the panic button last week, they need to call in FEMA this week to contain their meltdown.

 

After starting the season 3-0, the Blue Jays have gone on a four game skid.  Their overtime loss to Hofstra started the freight train to disaster, and it continued to roll as Hopkins then lost in overtime to Syracuse, and again in overtime to Virginia and finally getting rolled over by UNC by 5. 

Their remaining 6 games are against (in order); Duke, MD, Navy, Towson, Mount St. Mary’s, Loyola.  While theoretically anything can happen in lacrosse, the more probable scenario will be Hopkins facing Navy at 3-6 with their season on the line.  Under NCAA selection criteria, in this scenario, Hopkins would have to win out starting with Navy.  Even if they did win out with a 7-6 record, and the only quality win over Navy, their at-large bid would still be in jeopardy.

 

So how does Hopkins wind up in this mess? 

 

The easy answer would be to pick on their goalie Gvozden, especially to anyone that only saw the Hopkins/UNC game.  Heading into the game, Gvozden was tied for 28th of all NCAA D1 goalies with 250+ minutes played by posting a save percentage of 54.8% (57GA, 69SV).  After the UNC game, he will drop even further to 52.4% (69GA, 76 SV). 

Against UNC, Gvozden got rattled early as UNC scored two quick good goals with no chance for a save.  You can blame the defense for those.  Gvozden then let in two more that he could have saved, before he made his first save (4GA, 0SV).  The coaching decision to pull him out and then sending him back in (twice?), didn’t help either.  Yes, Gvozden’s play is a major factor, but there are others.

 

Another answer could be drive.  In their 3 overtime losses, the Blue Jays seemed to slow a bit after 3 quarters, and definitely after 4 quarters.  However, in the UNC game Hopkins didn’t even show up to play until the 4th quarter.  Whether early or late, this team has not been playing a full game on all cylinders.  This is a minor factor compared with the others.

 

Just saying turnovers is an easy copout, without realizing the underlying problems.  In 2007, Hopkins turned over the ball 14.7 times per game; compared to 2008 they are actually turning the ball over less at 14.4 times per game.  In the turnover column, there are two major differences when comparing 2007 and 2008. 

In 2008, more of the turnovers are unforced errors.  The missed passes are coming at an alarming clip for a team that historically is precise.  The other difference is their opponents.  In 2007, opponents turned over the ball 14.1 times per game (unforced+forced), yet in 2008 that number dips dramatically to 12.3 per game.  This is partly due to a defense that just is not as aggressive as they used to be.

 

Coming into this year the Hopkins defense was supposed to support their young goalie.  Unfortunately Gvozden is actually seeing less support that Schwartzman saw last year.  In 2008, the defense is letting opponents take 2.3 more shots per game (2.1 shots on goal) compared to 2007. 

A look at the Blue Jays’ close defense, and one would see that they are holding their own.  Zerrlaut, Evans, and Drennan have only let opponents score 25G this year (3.6G/game).  The only issue with the close unit is their lack of urgency.  This was apparent in the Hofstra loss, as Hofstra walked the ball around stalling (making the effort when needed to avoid a penalty), with no pressure. 

The real problem is with the defensive midfield, or lack thereof.  Opposing midfielders have scored 46G (6.6/game).  This is also where obviously more shots are being taken as well.  Solve this problem, and the Gvozden issue might be solved.  A goalie seeing middies come running across rifling lazers does not help his confidence.  The mental game of confidence is everything to a goalie.  Once he starts making some saves, and believing he can win, he will.

Speaking of defense, the Hopkins man-down unit is also performing worse.  Last year Hopkins stopped 65% of the opponents’ chances.  This year it is just 50%. 

 

The last issue is part of a bigger topic of discussion.  Scheduling.  Hopkins does not have the luxury of an automatic qualifier, thus must hope for an at large bid.  In doing so, understandably, their schedule needs to include top opponents.  However there is a saying about biting off more than you can chew.  More on this in a future blog.

 

Unless something major changes (sticking a close defenseman at midfield, Duke/MD players get the bird flu, etc), Hopkins will lose to both Duke and MD.  Duke and MD have deep midfield units that can score, as well as having the top two  attack units in the country.  With Gvosden’s confidence low after the UNC performance, and facing more shooters than a spaghetti western, he will get shelled. 

 

So is it time to hit the panic button? Yes.  Hit it. Smash it. Pick up the red phone and call batman.  Ring the alarm, another season is dying, whoa, hey.

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3/29 Game of the Week Preview

03/27/2008 By Keith

The votes are almost unanimously that UNC @ Hopkins is this week's GOW.
If UNC wins, they are well on their way to a playoff berth and gain some confidence back after the Maryland Hiccup.  On the other hand, Hopkins will be looking at the panic button (not there yet).
If Hopkins wins, they get a confidence boost before facing a one two punch of Duke and MD over the next two weeks.  UNC would be getting ready to push the panic button at that point.

So it is do or die for both teams.

Can the Blue Jays defend their nest and come away clean, or will the giant heel of tar stomp on the bird leaving a struggling team covered in the mire of doubt and denial?

 

UNC jumped out of the gate winning 5 straight games including #20 Denver, #6 Cornell, and #7 Notre Dame.  Then the Heels hit a rough patch going 1-2 with their two losses to Duke and Maryland .  In these losses UNC looked like a second tier team. 

Hopkins on the other hand started off with 3 wins including #17Princeton, #13UMBC, but has since dropped 3 straight.  The three losses have all been in OT.  To be honest, Hopkins last win (10-8 over UMBC), while still a win, didn’t really stand out.  Hopkins was only up by 1 heading into the 4th quarter against a bipolar UMBC team.

 

Key Matchup #1 Coaches:

Some people blame UNC’s persistent underachievement to their coach John Haus not knowing his Xs and Os, and leaving his players out to dry.  Well, to these naysayers, I ask…what about a coach that can’t motivate his team to win in OT?  During Dave Pietramala’s reign as coach, the Blue Jays were 30-6 in OT situations before this year.  In 2008 they are 0-3.  If there were ever a time I thought he would “motivate” the team after a loss, it would have been after the Hofstra defeat.  The Blue Jays looked bad out there...real bad.  Missed passes, failed clears, and not enough hustle had Petro in a frenzy.  Coming into the Syracuse game, the Blue Jays played hard but faded in the 4th and didn’t show up in OT.   

Winner = Push (any other year – Petro easily...this year...not so much)

 

Key Matchup #2 UNC defense vs Hopkins Offense:

Before Duke/MD losses UNC defense looked stellar, averaging only 5 goals against.  In their two losses, UNC let in an average of 16 goals each game.  Was it the Dmiddies that dropped the ball, or close D...lets take a look.
Against Cornell’s top midfielder, Seibald, UNC held him to just 1 goal.  Against Duke, most goals came from Duke’s attack, while their top middies (Ross, Schoefell, Crotty) only netted 4 goals.  When UNC played MD, it was reverse.  UNC’s close defense held one of the top attack units this year to only 2 goals (4 if you add in Weiss off the bench).  MD midfield scored 9 goals with 7 players.  The only player on midfield with more than 1 goal was Reynolds who stepped off the bench into the highlights that day.  This to me is a big flaw.  It wasn’t that one player dominated, but that UNC’s defensive middies had trouble with all of MDs midfield.  UNC really needs to bring the whole package.  They can’t keep relying on Zimmerman to bail them out.

Zimmerman.  UNC’s goalie is a brick wall.  So far this year he has allowed 58 goals and made 90 saves.  That is a superhuman 61% against some top teams.  Against Duke he let in 15 goals but also made 14 saves (almost double the shots faced in other games).  However against MD he had his worst performance of the year (by FAR) letting in 13 goals and only making 9 saves.  I wouldn’t say Zimm needs to bring his “A” game, as his “regular” game is as good as anyone’s.  He just can’t have another meltdown like the MD game. 

Hopkins goals are coming mostly from their attack (Huntley with 16G, Boyle with 8), and being supported well by their midfield.  Rabil has 10G on the season, Peyser 9, and Kimmel 4.  In the preseason, Hopkins was touted as one of if not THE best midfield solidified by Rabil.  In the three losses the 1st line’s stats have been:

Vs. Hofstra – Rabil-0G, Peyser-2G, Kimmel-1G

Vs. Cuse – Rabil-1G, Peyser-2G, Kimmel-1G

Vs. UVA – Rabil-3G, Peyser-2G, Kimmel-0G

While they have been improving each game as a unit, each opponent played them differently and won.  Hofstra kept the ball out of Hopkins sticks and controlled play.  Syracuse has athletic and talented defensive middies.  UVA's midfield just had to out score Hopkins'.

Winner = Hopkins .  As much as I like Zimm, Hopkins ’ midfield will take advantage of any weakness in UNC’s midfield.

 

Key Matchup #3 UNC’s offense vs Hopkins Defense:

Surprise surprise.  UNC’s 1st line of middies are scoring just as much as Hopkins ’ 1st line.  Hunt has 12G, Delaney has 8, and Driscoll has 8 as well.  UNC also has a good attack unit led by Wagner with 13G.  The tar heels are unselfish, as 8 players have more than 5 goals so far, and 61% of their goals are off of assists. 

Hopkins defense has not clamped down on anyone so far this year.  Against Hofstra, the Hopkins D looked lazy not pressuring Hofstra to do anything, and the Dutchmen were more than happy to sit on the ball.  With Cuse and UVA, it was an old run and gun style, with the defense not being able to hold anyone down. 

Looking at Gvodzen in cage for Hopkins , I know he is just a freshman and has great potential.  He isn’t there this year.  His save % is 54.8% on 57G against and 69 saves.  Not amazing, but also not bad.  The interesting statistical tidbit is this.  UNC’s offense gets better as the game goes on.  In the 1st half, they have taken 97 shots on goal, netting 38 (39%).  In the second half, they are taking only 75 shots on goal netting 41 (55%).   Gvozden on the other hand gets worse as the game goes on.  In the 1st half he has faced 70 shots on goal and has 35 saves (58%), in the 2nd half he has faced 63 shots, and saved 34 (54%), and in OT he has faced 3 shots with 0 saves (0%). 

Winner = UNC.  They have the tools, and as long as they can stay mentally in the whole game, have a good chance as Hopkins tires late.

 

Key Matchup #4 Special Teams

UNC gets penalized almost 6 times per game for just under 6 minutes per game.  Hopkins only has been penalized 2.5 times per game for 2.5 minutes per game.  The Blue Jays’ EMO unit scores on 58% of their chances, and UNC’s man down defense gets scored on 39% of the time.

Hopkins won’t be caught man down too often and when they do they are stopping opponents over 46% of the time.  UNC’s EMO unit is not so good only scoring on 42.5% of their opportunities.  Hopkins will get an extra 2 goals this game from special teams play.

Winner = Hopkins.

Wrap up:
To make a long story short (too late), I am having a tough time calling this one.  UNC's offensive midfield is as good as Hopkins' this season.  I like Zimmerman over Gvodzen.  At attack it is a toss up.  I was planning on picking UNC.  I think they have the talent, and I think Hopkins is not the stand out team they usually are.  I really think it will be a small thing like special teams.  Hopkins by 1 thanks to 2 EMO goals.  IF this game goes to OT, I reserve the right to switch my call to UNC.  The Blue Jays only sign up to play 60 minutes and punch their cards at the end of regulation. 

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